In September 2025, Nigeria submitted its revised nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), pledging to achieve 100 percent electricity access by 2030.
NDCs are climate action plans that countries submit under the Paris Agreement. While they focus largely on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, they also outline how nations intend to expand access to clean, affordable, and reliable energy.Countries are required to update these commitments every five years with more ambitious targets, and Nigeria’s latest submission followed its previous update in 2021.
“The NDC 3.0 targets also contribute to the achievements of the Mission 300 Compact. The major targets are: 100% electricity access by 2030,” the NDC reads.The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) highlight deep inequalities in electricity access between urban and rural households in the country. It notes that while electrification rates are higher in urban areas, only 53.6 percent of households nationwide have access to electricity.
Nigeria’s power sector continues to grapple with deep-rooted structural challenges, with generation capacity existing only on paper, as the electricity delivered to homes and businesses remains a fraction of what is required.
Although installed capacity has increased in recent years with the addition of new power plants, average available capacity has lagged behind demand. Persistent gas supply shortages, ageing transmission infrastructure, and frequent vandalism of critical assets continue to constrain output.
These weaknesses have repeatedly manifested in grid instability.
In 2025, Nigeria recorded four major grid disturbances. On February 12, parts of the country were plunged into darkness as the grid reportedly tripped off. A second incident occurred on March 7. In September, another collapse saw generation fall to near zero nationwide, while on December 29, power generation dropped sharply from 2,052.37 megawatts to 139.92 MW within an hour.
While the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) disputed some reports, it acknowledged that the national grid collapsed at least twice in 2025.
Meanwhile, in 2024 alone, the grid collapsed no fewer than 11 times.
Adebayo Adelabu, minister of power, had said in October 2024 that the frequent system failures of the national grid were inevitable due to outdated infrastructure.
“The infrastructure is in deplorable conditions, so why won’t you have trip-offs? Why won’t you have collapses, either total or partial? It will continue to remain like this until we can overhaul the entire infrastructure. What we do now is to make sure that we manage it,” Adelabu said.
The World Bank says achieving universal electricity access in Africa by 2030 will require a mix of grid expansion, mini-grids, and standalone solar solutions, while the African Development Bank (AfDB) estimates that meeting this goal will require investments of about $454 billion across the continent.
David Arinze, an energy expert, said electricity “access” should not be narrowly interpreted as grid connection alone, arguing that decentralised and off-grid solutions must play a central role in reaching underserved communities.
Arinze described Nigeria’s 100 percent electricity access target as “extremely ambitious” given the country’s current realities.
“I approach this conversation from a place of hope, not pessimism,” Arinze said.
“A lot needs to happen within a very short time. Financing remains a major challenge, and while decentralised solutions like mini-grids and solar home systems offer real opportunities, they can only scale if we mobilise meaningful financial resources and put the right policies in place.”
With millions of Nigerian households still relying on kerosene, firewood, and coal for everyday energy needs and with fossil fuels accounting for more than 80 percent of the global energy mix, expanding access to clean and reliable energy has become critical, not only for development but also for cutting emissions and limiting climate impacts.
Adetoyi Adedeji, an energy specialist, told TheCable that the target is technically attainable — but only if longstanding structural weaknesses in the power sector are urgently addressed.
He said aggressive timelines would remain unrealistic unless Nigeria fixes foundational problems across generation, transmission, and distribution, while prioritising off-grid and mini-grid solutions, especially in areas where grid expansion is costly or impractical.
“Technically, it is possible — but not from where we currently stand. A lot has to change,” Adedeji told TheCable.
“The power sector has recorded several grid failures this year alone. Building resilience requires diversifying generation sources, strengthening transmission infrastructure, and ensuring that reforms in the distribution companies take root.
NIGERIA’S CLEAN ENERGY AMBITION
Beyond universal access, Nigeria’s new NDC also targets a 50 percent renewable energy share in the electricity generation mix by 2030, alongside a 9 percent annual increase in new electricity connections.
These targets align with Mission 300 — a World Bank and African Development Bank-led initiative aimed at providing electricity to 300 million people in sub-Saharan Africa by 2030 through grid expansion, mini-grids, and solar home systems, while also driving sector reforms and attracting private investment.
Launched in 2024 at the World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings, Mission 300 has connected about 32 million people across Africa to electricity as of September 2025 and supports the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 7 on affordable and clean energy.
However, progress remains slow. According to the UN, at the current pace, about 645 million people globally will still lack electricity access by 2030, while 1.8 billion will remain without clean cooking solutions.
Africa, despite its vast renewable energy potential, including solar, hydro, wind, and geothermal resources, continues to face a significant energy access gap, attracting only about 3 percent of global clean energy investment.
Data shows that Nigeria’s total installed renewable energy capacity stood at about 3 gigawatts as of 2023, while Africa reached 62.1 GW in the same year.
At the second Africa Climate Summit in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, African leaders reaffirmed the continent’s target of generating 300 gigawatts of renewable energy by 2030, calling for a tenfold increase in global renewable energy investment to ensure a just energy transition.
Arinze said achieving Nigeria’s 50 percent renewable energy target would require a shift from pilot projects to large-scale deployment, including utility-scale solar, rooftop systems, and decentralised solutions.
He added that local manufacturing and supply chains must be prioritised to reduce costs and improve access.
“Renewable energy is already the cheapest form of electricity globally, but in Nigeria, consumers still face high upfront costs because financing structures are weak,” Arinze said.
“If people have to pay everything at once, adoption will remain slow. What we need are flexible payment models, better access to finance, and policies that support scale.”In March, the federal government announced plans to halt the importation of solar panels, a move it said would promote local manufacturing and accelerate Nigeria’s clean energy transition.
The decision, however, drew pushback from industry experts.
Adedeji said that while Nigeria must build local capacity to manufacture solar panels and batteries, an outright ban on imports would be ineffective without robust policies and incentives to support domestic production.
He said domestic production of finished products, backed by incentives such as tax breaks and access to affordable financing, would deepen adoption and attract private investment.
“Recent efforts to attract investment into local solar panel assembly and battery production are steps in the right direction, but policy signals must be clear and matched with incentives to deepen adoption and gradually reduce reliance on imported components,” he said.
“If we want to build a sustainable renewable energy ecosystem, we must support local industry — not just close the door on imports without having adequate domestic production in place.”
He emphasised the need for clear data on off-grid populations, their locations, and the most suitable solutions for each area, adding that states must actively use their new regulatory powers to attract investors.
Adedeji said achieving Nigeria’s electricity and clean energy targets would require stronger coordination between the government and the private sector, warning that fragmented approaches across the power sector could undermine progress.
The energy expert added that without coordinated planning and collaboration, Nigeria risks missing its ambitious energy access targets.
The cable
