The Battlefield in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is a little bit crowded- this is not a surprise, because the PDP is the party in power in the state, so, most of the aspirants are banking on the party’s incumbency and the influence of the state governor. Governor Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri has a penchant for determining or rather imposing candidates on the party even at the councilor level.
The Adamawa PDP has to be very careful with its selection of its national assembly aspirants, if the party truly wants to give Atiku Abubakar the maximum votes in Adamawa state if Atiku secures the presidential ticket. Weak candidates with low electoral value do stimulate people’s voting patterns. Furthermore, the election sequence in most cases has a bandwagon effect on the populace’s voting pattern – that’s why, since 1983 the party in power works tirelessly to ensure that elections are conducted Top-Bottom- the presidential election is conducted first; which will easily trigger a bandwagon effect on the voting pattern of the people. In fact, Nigeria only witnessed Bottom-Top election sequences during the military transition periods. Though in 2015, the election sequence failed to give the party in power the anticipated undue advantage- politics is intricate!
Auwal Bamanga Tukur is one of the few PDP bigwigs in Nigeria that have never left the PDP through good or bad times. Auwal and his father Bamanga Tukur have paid their dues to the PDP- if that’s a criterion – the PDP ticket for Adamawa Central Senatorial District Should be Auwal’s. Auwal represented Yola-North, Yola-South, and Girei Federal Constituency between 1999-2003, but lost his bid for a second term. Auwal is too elitist, one cannot pinpoint his friends or longtime political associate in the grassroots, he is an absentee politician, and his strength cannot go beyond his hope for Fintiri’s endorsement. Nevertheless, he is a likable man.
Speaker Aminu Iya Abba is typically good in village politics, his style of politicking as a speaker has exposed his weakness in metropolitan politics. Abbas is young and well educated with a good résumé presentable anywhere in Nigeria. Abbas will 100% rely on his unalloyed loyalty to Governor Fintiri to secure the Ticket. Adamawa House of Assembly has never produced a Speaker that has given total loyalty to the Governor like Abbas is doing to Fintiri, to the extent of conducting House preliminary even on a public holiday to attend to Fintiri’s request. The recent passage of the bill for the creation of new Districts has put Abbas in the black book of the Jimeta people, if he secured the ticket, they will use their massive vote against him. In free-fair primaries, Abbas’s strength cannot go beyond Hong and some portion of Gombi, however, if Fintiri and the PDP are to compensate loyalty from a legislature to the government of the day, Abbas will get the ticket.
Mustapha Babayola (baba 10) is not new in the game – he has contested for the House Representatives on many occasions and party platforms. He is very popular within the Jimeta-Yola-Girei axis. Strong warchest and affinity to grassroots will not be an issue to him. However, he is new to the politics of the entire Adamawa central. Baba 10 can clinch the ticket if friendship with the Governor and grassroots mobilization are the keys. Baba 10 is also heavily relying on Fintiri’s endorsement, but his political strength has not reached- Song, Fufore, Gombi, and Hong LGAs.
Abdullahi Adamu Prembe is an absolute party man, he understands the nitty-gritty of party politics- he went through the mills. He was PDP state secretary, a current commissioner, and a political godson to Professor Jibril Amin. Prembe’s Strong Selling Point is his calm nature and will be a true representation of all party men and women. If the PDP wants to compensate one of its true children – Prembe will get the ticket. His biggest weak point is – that his face is not well-known in all the seven LGAs of Adamawa central. He’s very strong in Song.
If the PDP is to settle for an old-timer with vast experience in both local and national politics, then DD Azura is the man, he was a time Chairman, of Hong LGA on a non-party basis during the military regime, he is the first Northern Nigeria lawyer to have been elected ‘1st National Vice President of the Nigerian Bar Association. He was appointed Chairman of the INDUSTRIAL ARBITRATION PANEL (IAP) in 2014. Azura was the man that initiated that LG funds and that of Emirates’ councils be directly transferred to them from the Federation Account, when he was LGA chairman.
Azura’s strength cannot go beyond the Hong-Gombi axis, he is not an active PDP man whose name always rings a bell. His face may be new to the new young voters who are now the majority of the voting populace.
Modibbo Chubado Murtala Mohammed is not new in the game – he was PDP’s candidate in the 2019 election for Adamawa Central, Senatorial District, he polled 96,530 votes, while his opponent, Senator Aishatu Dahiru Ahmed of the APC got 188,526 votes. Chubado has remained in the field through the days before the election and after the elections. In fact, he is behaving as if he is a Senator- with the provision of amenities, social support, and massive grassroots constant contact & mobilization. With this, in a free-fair contest, he will beat all his opponents. If grassroots contact, mobilization, and the quest for someone that easily gets massive votes for the PDP, Chubado will get the ticket. Chubado’s strength cut across all the seven LGAs of Adamawa central- but is he a true party man, who the PDP and Fintiri can count on, and be trusted with it a senatorial ticket?
In a note shell, the PDP ticket for Adamawa Central Senatorial District will be clinched by the person who The Power That Be is inclined to, but the biggest influencer is money, the person with the strongest warchest will carry the day!
Next, Insha Allah, we will discuss Adamawa South.
Zayyad I. Muhmmad writes from Abuja, zaymohd@yahoo.com, 08036070980
