The Convener of the League of Northern Democrats and a key promoter of the All-Democratic Alliance (ADA), Dr Umar Ardo, has predicted that President Bola Tinubu may secure less than 10 per cent of the votes in Northern Nigeria in the 2027 presidential election if the poll is free and fair.
Ardo made the prediction during an interview on Frontline, a current affairs programme on Eagle 102.5 FM, Ilese-Ijebu, Ogun State.
According to him, Tinubu’s electoral fortunes in the North will largely depend on how voters assess the performance of his administration, particularly on insecurity, economic hardship, poverty and the rising cost of living.
Ardo identified insecurity as one of the major issues that could influence voting patterns in the region, noting that insurgency and other security challenges continue to affect communities, farmers, traders and businesses.
“You can solve the issue of insecurity and insurgency in one year,” he said.
He argued furthe that the Federal Government could substantially reduce the crisis if it adopted the right strategy and demonstrated sufficient political will.
He said the consequences of insecurity extend beyond the loss of lives and property, stressing that citizens cannot effectively farm, trade or conduct other economic activities when their safety is constantly threatened.
The political commentator also criticised the economic reforms of the Tinubu administration, particularly the removal of fuel subsidy, questioning whether ordinary Nigerians have experienced tangible benefits from the policy.
“Subsidy removal, is it a benefit?” he asked.
Ardo argued that although some workers had received salary increases, the rising cost of goods and services had significantly eroded their purchasing power.
“The purchasing power has been depreciated,” he said.
He further contended that the economic reforms had pushed many Nigerians from poverty into destitution, with the impact, according to him, particularly severe in Northern Nigeria because of the region’s large population of poor and vulnerable citizens.
“The economic reform has pushed from the state of poverty to destitution,” Ardo said.
He also raised concerns about political representation under the Tinubu administration, arguing that the composition of government could shape citizens’ perception of whether different regions and interests are adequately represented.
According to him, the issue of representation should be considered alongside broader questions of governance and the actual impact of government policies on the population.
Ardo said the 2027 presidential election would give Northern voters an opportunity to assess the Tinubu administration based on their experiences since the President assumed office.
Against this backdrop, Ardo offered a stark assessment of Tinubu’s prospects in the region if the election is free, fair and credible.
“If a free, fair and credible election is conducted in Nigeria, Tinubu can’t get 10 percent of the Northern part,” he said.
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