Nigeria’s crude oil production rose to a peak of 1.78 million barrels per day (mbpd) in July, the highest level recorded year-to-date (YTD). The July production was about a five per cent uptrend compared to the 1.7 mbpd average output recorded in June. Production has risen steadily from January, boosting the prospect of realising the 2.06 mbpd budget benchmark before year-end.
The rebound offers a significant fiscal reprieve after the country lost over $5.3 billion in potential revenue between January and June due to persistent underproduction.
Commission Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Gbenga Komolafe, disclosed this at the opening of the 2025 edition of the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) Nigeria Annual International Conference and Exhibition (NAICE), held in Lagos yesterday.
Komolafe, who was represented by the Commission’s Executive Commissioner, Development and Production, Enorense Amadasu, described the production recovery as a “significant milestone” under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s ‘Renewed Oil Production Mandate. He said the improvement came after months of steep output deficits that had strained the country’s fiscal and foreign exchange outlook. We crossed the 1.8 million barrels per day mark at the peak production last month, with average production hovering at 1.78 mbpd. The progress reflects the multi-stakeholder efforts and regulatory initiatives we have implemented under our production enhancement framework,” he said.
The Federal Government had pegged the 2025 budget at a production benchmark of 2.06 mbpd and a crude oil price of $75 per barrel. Oil revenue was expected to contribute significantly to the N28.7 trillion budget, accounting for an estimated N15.7 trillion or over 50 per cent of total projected revenue.
However, actual production volume in the first half of 2025 showed that Nigeria was distantly short of the output target. In January, average daily production stood at about 1.74 mbpd, 320,000 barrels below the budget benchmark, leading to a monthly shortfall of 9.92 million barrels.
In February, the gap widened to 390,000 barrels per day, resulting in a deficit of around 11.3 million barrels for the month. March witnessed a steeper decline, with production trailing by 460,000 barrels per day, translating to nearly 14.3 million barrels in lost output.
In April, production recovered slightly to 1.68 mbpd, with the daily shortfall standing at 380,000. That brought the monthly shortfall to about 11.4 million barrels. Output dipped again in May to 1.66 mbpd, leaving a 12.4-million-barrel monthly gap. June saw a modest rebound to 1.7 mbpd, but not without a monthly output deficit of 10.8 million barrels.
Cumulatively, the figures placed Nigeria at a crude production shortfall of approximately 70.67 million barrels in the first half of the year (H1). He stressed the need for enhanced collaboration among regulators, operators and professional bodies such as SPE to support skill development, supply chain resilience, and carbon reduction pathways.
Amidst speculation about his possible resignation, the Group Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), Bayo Ojulari, has called for a bankable and coordinated energy strategy to attract global capital to Nigeria’s oil and gas industry.
Delivering a virtual keynote address at the conference, Ojulari said Nigeria must now present a compelling investment narrative built on innovation, transparency and long-term sustainability if it hopes to remain competitive in the global energy transition.
“In a world where global capital pools are vast, the competition for them is fierce. Africa must not just participate, it must compete. Nigeria must make its energy story bankable, sustainable and globally relevant,” Ojulari said.
Pushing back on the global narrative that fossil fuels are becoming obsolete, Ojulari described oil and gas as “foundational to a sustainable and inclusive energy future, particularly for Africa”. The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, outlined the Federal Government’s strategic roadmap to reposition natural gas as the cornerstone of Nigeria’s energy security, economic development and clean energy transition. Ekpo said the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has placed gas “at the heart” of its energy agenda under the theme, ‘From Gas to Prosperity’.
He added that the ministry has taken decisive steps to expand gas supply for industrial use, promote clean cooking through the LPG penetration programme, and stimulate last-mile access via modular LNG and CNG stations. He noted that every gas offtaker currently receives sufficient supply for industrial processes and reaffirmed the government’s target to move five million homes to clean cooking by 2030.
According to Ekpo, key infrastructure projects such as the OB3 and AKK pipelines are progressing steadily, alongside virtual pipeline systems that will reach off-grid and underserved areas.
The minister disclosed that the government has released financial support through the Midstream and Downstream Gas Infrastructure Fund (MDGIF) to help gas project promoters unlock capital and deliver critical infrastructure. Ekpo stressed the importance of four pillars – technology, supply chain, human resources and policy – in realising Nigeria’s energy vision.
“Nigeria’s pathway to a sustainable energy future is one of collaboration. Government alone can’t achieve this vision; we need the insight of professionals like you, the enterprise of our private sector, the innovation of our youth and the support of our global partners,” he added. The Chief Executive of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), Farouk Ahmed, emphasised the critical role of emerging technologies, policy clarity, and coordinated supply chain systems in driving Nigeria towards a $1 trillion economy by 2030.
Ahmed stressed that achieving energy access that promotes economic development and sustainability requires strategic action, technological advancement, and continuous collaboration among stakeholders. He noted that the global energy landscape is being reshaped by forces such as artificial intelligence, geopolitical tensions, and carbon neutrality targets, adding that Nigeria must leverage tools such as smart grids, hydrologic technology, energy storage, and biofuels to meet domestic and global energy demand.
According to him, policy transparency and capacity development across all sectors of the industry, regulators, operators, and service providers remain fundamental to attracting investments and maintaining sectoral sustainability.
Nigeria, therefore, needs to leverage the relevant resources required to meet these energy demand targets and sustainable and global demand. Technology is one of the most important resources to get our nation to this future. Technology represents both a challenge and an opportunity for the agricultural sector.
The guardian
